Black Swan Event at Tiananmen & Why Has US Won All the Wars but Lost All the Battles?
Hello, everyone, welcome to “Inconvenient Truths”. I am your host Jennifer Zeng.
It’s so nice to see you again after some interruption because I needed to change studios. Today I will talk about some “black swan” events in China, then I will discuss a very important question: Why has the US won all the wars but lost all the battles? Why can an article by a former Australian prime minister serve as evidence of the CCP’s threat to the world?
Before we go on, I’d like to first of all express my gratitude to everyone who has supported me in any form. I’d like to first of all show you this message I received together with a 100 dollar donation.
See the message, “Inconvenient or not, truth must be told! Jia You!” The last two words Jia You are actually the pronunciations of two Chinese words meaning “keep fighting, go, or keep it up.”
I must say that I am very much moved.
You know, YouTube has been suppressing me very obviously since January this year. My views suddenly dropped by over 90%, and my videos were often given a yellow flag, which means I wouldn’t have any advertisement revenue.
A major reason why I had to change studios is to save cost. Renting a studio has a cost, as there were two technicians working together with me every time when I did live shows, apart from the cost of the studio itself. So I am now doing everything on my own from my home, with a virtual background.
I will try to keep going as far as I can. So, any kind of support is much appreciated!
Now, let’s move to our first topic today.
A Black Swan Event at Tiananmen Square
We all know that the term “black swan” is often used to refer to an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences.
Well, on September 5, a real black swan landed in Tiananmen Square out of nowhere.
Let's watch a video.
This swan appeared right after the national flag raising ceremony. Soon afterwards, it started raining.
I must say it was a very usual thing. I had lived in Beijing for 17 years, but I had never seen a black swan, or a white swan in Beijing. I only saw birds or animals in the zoo in such a densely populated city. Any animals would usually be scared to death, just as some foreigners who were overwhelmed by the crowds and crazy traffic. The problem was, nobody cares for traffic rules. People did all sorts of unexpected things.
I remember a student from the US said to me after I drove her to the Great Wall that she admired me, no, she worshiped me so much for daring to drive in such crazy situations in such a crazy city.
Anyway, this swan was caught later.
It was said that since there was no foot ring on this swan, it must be a wild animal.
So this unusual event has been spreading on the internet like mad. So many people have been talking about it. For those who oppose the CCP, they think that this is an indication that the CCP will encounter big trouble; for the CCP itself, it actually also fears that this means bad luck for them.
Chinese people tend to believe that heaven, earth, and human beings are interconnected with one another, so something happening in the human world may really reflect heaven's will. At least many people hope that the CCP will be gone as soon as possible.
Now, let’s move to another possible black swan event in China.
Will the Real Estate Bubble Burst Soon?
Will the CCP encounter big trouble soon? Let’s watch a short video.
Well, this video shows a group of employees from Evergrande, the largest real estate developer in China, shouting "Vicious Evergrande, brutally laying off employees, refusing to pay employees’ commissions.!” The banner they are holding says the same thing.
Actually I did a show about Evergrande last September, about one year ago. I kind of “predicted” what would happen now.
At that time Evergrande encountered huge problems in terms of its capital flow. It had to “blackmail” the local government for it to bail it out. And the local government virtually forced its creditors to turn their loans to Evergrande into so-called investment, or shares of Evergrande, so that Evergrande didn’t have to pay back those debts.
It seems that Evergrande’s problem wasn’t solved through that round of bail out. Recently, some of its projects have been stopped; and it is laying off employees, like we just saw in the video.
And, for the first time ever, Evergrande has admitted that it could default on its debts.
International rating agency Moody's has also downgraded Evergrande and its subsidiaries again on September 7. This is the third time since the end of June.
There is also news that Evergrande has notified two banks to suspend payment of interest on the loan due on the 21st of this month.
The problem is, Evergrande is not the only real estate developer that is in great trouble. The share prices of many other developers plunged too.
This is the bond price of Evergrande in one year.
You know, in China, many local governments rely on selling the rights of land to survive, that’s why they don’t like the house price to fall too much.
On the other hand, as much as 70 percent of Chinese people’s wealth is locked in the real estate market.
Another worrying sign is, the trading volume of houses is dropping sharply too.
This article says that the trading volume of existing housing in Shenzhen city has hit a 10 year low recently, and dropped 77% year-on-year.
So, if the real estate bubble bursts, will China have its own financial tsunami like the one that happened in the US and globally in 2007-2008?
A 10 Trillion Hole to Fill
Actually, another bigger bubble is the financial crisis of the Chinese local government.
Let’s see this report: Basically it says that among 31 provinces and cities directly under the Central Government, only Shanghai has a fiscal surplus in the first half of 2021, the rest are all in deficit.
Even Guangdong Province, China's top province in terms of GDP figures, is not able to cover its expenses.
You know, back in 2017, there were still 6 provinces and one city had a fiscal surplus, so the situation has worsened after 4 years.
In early September, the China Institute of Fiscal Studies released the “Blue Book of China’s Fiscal Policy”.
This blue book predicts that China’s fiscal shortfall will continue to widen after 2021, with the gap expanding to 10 trillion yuan in 2025.
So what does 10 trillion yuan mean? Let me give you some ideas.
China’s general public budget revenue in 2019 was about 19 trillion yuan, and if you look at the central government's revenue alone, it was close to 9 trillion yuan.
Yet by 2025, the nation's fiscal deficit will be 10 trillion. This huge hole exceeds the total central government’s revenue in 2019, and this will happen in just a few years.
If you were Xi Jinping, would you feel very much worried? Yes, you would; and all the big and small business owners who have any money to be taken away should feel very much worried too.
P2P Lending Platform Victims
Now, let’s watch another short video. It shows victims of the so-called P2P, peer to peer lending platforms protesting in front of a government building in Hainan Province in China. This video was taken on Sep 6.
You know, several years ago, the P2P online lending platforms were very popular in China, with the CCP promoting them.
Public data compiled by the Chinese Epoch Times indicates that there were 1,855 known online lending platforms in China. They had 344 million participants and a pending balance of about $145 billion. But these platforms only account for 12.5 percent of the total number of online lending platforms.
These platforms have been heavily promoted by the CCP. According to statistics reported in the Chinese Epoch Times, from 2013 to 2015, the CCP’s most influential TV station, China Central Television, reported on and promoted P2P lending dozens of times, and state-level CCP leaders have spoken out in favor of P2P. Big cities including Beijing, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Nanjing, and Shanghai issued policies to promote the development of the internet finance industry.
However, the CCP started to crack down on the P2P platforms very soon. In 2018, many P2P platforms started to “voluntarily” exit the market.
Once the P2P platforms were closed, the victims had no way to get back their investments. The government cannot be held responsible for their losses and victims who sought to recover their losses were often cracked down on by the authorities, like you just saw in that video.
Today I saw news that those victims were detained illegally for more than 24 hours.
So why did the CCP promote the P2Pk platforms and then crackdown on them?
Because the numerous bad debts in CCP's state-owned banks had threatened China’s financial stability. In order to solve this problem, the CCP started to promote internet financing and allowed P2P platforms to develop in order to attract funds. Bad loans were repackaged as P2P products and sold to the public who didn’t know the truth.
After the banks got rid of the non-performing assets, the authorities then cracked down on the P2P platforms by forcing them to close.
Let’s see this report. It says that as of mid-November of last year, the actual number of P2P platforms operating across China had completely gone to zero.
This means that the trillions of dollars in debts owed by P2P platforms were also zeroed out along with them.
That’s why those protestors will get nothing back, and will only be arrested.
So this allows us to see from another angle the real situation of the Chinese economy and financial market. As far as I know, the number of victims is huge, but as they are not organized, they can hardly do anything.
“Attacking TW is Mainly A War Against the US. 200K TW Troops is Just a Pile of Meat”
Next, I want to show a speech by a famous CCP professor, someone who is regarded as a “national advisor.” Please make sure you read the English subtitles I added.
I don’t know what you think after watching his speech. You might think, oh, what an idiot. There is no way the CCP can win the war with Taiwan and the US. The US will intercept all the CCP’s missiles, and they won’t be able to destroy anything, or kill any of the 200K Taiwan troops.
Well, what I want to show to everyone are the following two points:
Apart from being a professor, this guy Jin Canrong is also the party secretary of the China Society for Future Studies. So his mentally is the CCP’s mentally. I think if anyone makes the same kind of statement in the US, and openly talks about killing 200K people as if they were only a pile of meat, he or she may be treated as a terrorist. Such kind of statements may be blocked as anti-humanity or hate speech.
But this guy is invited to many very prestigious places to give speeches, and such statements are applauded in CCP’s China, and he earned both big money and reputation for spreading this kind of speeches.
So this is what we should pay attention to. With this kind of mentality, is there anything that they will not do?
2. The second point is, although we might think that his speech is nonsense, but inside China, where people are blocked from seeing other information, and are only exposed to this kind of nonsense, as time goes by, many people, perhaps including CCP leaders, and military leaders in this matter, may start believing in what he says too.
People say that Xi Jinping often makes misjudgments when dealing with international issues. Why did he make misjudgments? He himself is also a victim of this kind of propaganda and nonsense. After a lie is repeated a thousand times, the person who creates the lie may also start believing it.
That is why we should worry.
With this, let’s move on to our last topic today:
Why has the US won all the wars but lost all the battles?
Why has the US won all the wars but lost all the battles?
This weekend will be the 20th anniversary of 911. 911 is America's saddest memory in the 21st century. So the war on Afghanistan was actually the will of the entire U.S. population.
It is beyond doubt that the US army is the strongest in the world. Soon after the US started the war, the Taliban regime, which was protecting Osama bin Laden, collapsed fairly quickly. It seems that the US has won the war.
Then, it took the US 10 years to eliminate bin Laden, and another 10 years to withdraw. But how has this withdrawal gone so far? Needless to say it was a disgrace for the US.
And this is not the first time for the US. Apart from the victory in World War II, the same thing happened to the US in almost all the wars it fought afterwards.
For example, the US won World War II together with the then legitimate Chinese government led by KMT, but it abandoned this ally and let the CCP occupy China with the support of the Soviet Union.
And after that in almost all critical historical times, the US made the wrong decision.
For example, after the CCP leader Mao Zedong started the Cultural Revolution, US President Nixon established diplomatic relations with CCP’s China, bringing it into the United Nations and abandoning Taiwan.
After the Tiananmen Massacre in 1989, US President Bush quietly sent people to China to help the CCP through the crisis. 2 years later, with the help of US President Clinton, the CCP was allowed to join the WTO.
The same is true with the Korean War and the Vietnam War. The US got involved to stop the communists, but ended up not finishing the task. The horrible Kim family regime is still ruling North Korea, and Vietnam is still occupied by communists.
Also, the US has been hit hard by the CCP virus pandemic. After the outbreak, the US suddenly found that medical supplies were in short supply, as everything was made in China, and so many other countries had to beg the CCP to get some basic supplies too.
So what’s wrong with the US? Why did such a powerful country always mishandle major international affairs in the past decades?
I talked about the article “The Longer Telegram: Toward A New American China Strategy” last time.
The main point of this article is that the US should aim at getting rid of Xi Jinping, instead of overturning the CCP, so that the relationship between the US and China can go back to the pre-Xi era, etc.
So I think the fundamental problem of this kind of thinking is that it regards the CCP as a bad neighbor who is temporarily making some mistakes. It never tries to understand the true nature of the CCP. That is why the US repeatedly made mistakes: Because it failed to see through the CCP. It never dared to think about how to deal with the issue from the root. On the contrary, it always thought it could co-exist with the CCP.
Several days ago, former Australian prime minister Paul Keating published an article titled “The Morrison government is provoking China to please America”.
His main points are: First, Australia is fighting the CCP because Australia wants to please the US. Second, the CCP poses no global threat, and third, it is only the US that cannot tolerate a strong CCP, etc.
I felt so sad when I read this article. The fact that a former prime minister of Australia, a major democratic country, is defending the CCP itself is a piece of strong evidence of the CCP’s great threat to the world, isn’t it?
I am not sure how far away the US can go on this wrong path when dealing with the CCP. The other day when I retweeted someone’s article in Chinese, I made such a statement: If the US doesn’t eliminate the CCP, the CCP will destroy mankind. Period.
Well, that’s my conclusion. Spread it if you agree. Please also make sure you subscribe to and share my channel, like my videos and leave me a comment to show your support.
This is the first time that I am using this new software to record this video. Please do forgive me if the overall result is not perfect. I will definitely do better in the future.
Thank you. See you next time!
9/9/2021*
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