Is It Really Possible For The Xi Family / Qi Qiaoqiao To Net Nearly $60 Billion A Year From Oil?

Two days ago, Canadian writer Sheng Xue posted an article (which was later deleted, but I reposted it and restored it here) claiming that Qi Qiaoqiao, the sister of Xi Jinping, monopolizes China’s oil imports from Venezuela and Iran, earning a net profit of 400 billion yuan ($57.59 billion)per year. The post also made a number of other claims.

The post was quickly deleted, triggering widespread attention and controversy.

I initially reposted it as well. Later, since I could not determine why Sheng Xue had deleted her post, I also deleted my repost along with the key points I had summarized.

Today, after checking the data myself, I have summarized the situation as follows:

• In 2025, China imported 143,810,000 barrels of oil from Venezuela, 503,700,000 barrels from Iran, and 4.216 billion barrels in total from all countries combined.

• If oil imported from Venezuela and Iran yields a profit of USD 20 per barrel, that would amount to USD 12.9 billion per year, or approximately 89.6 billion yuan.

• If, hypothetically, all of China’s oil import business were monopolized by the Xi family, and assuming a profit of USD 20 per barrel, annual profits would reach USD 84.3 billion, equivalent to about 585.5 billion yuan.

Of course, the above calculations are extremely rough and simplistic. In particular, I do not know what the actual profit margins are for oil imported from other countries. According to Grok, the overall price gap between imported oil and the price at which oil products are sold to Chinese consumers (including all stages of the process) is roughly USD 50–100 per barrel, or even higher.

Sources:

1. Reuters report: China’s teapots buy Iranian oil to replace Venezuelan supply, sources say

“China’s imports of Venezuelan crude averaged 394,000 barrels per day for 2025, or around 4% of China’s total seaborne crude imports, data from analytics firm Kpler showed.”

2. Reuters report: China’s heavy reliance on Iranian oil imports

“China purchased on average 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian oil last year, according to Kpler. That represented about 13.4% of the total 10.27 million bpd of oil it imported by sea.”

3. Reuters report: China's 2025 oil imports, December inflows both hit record highs

"China imported 557.73 million tons of crude oil in 2025, or 11.55 million bpd, up 4.4% from a year earlier."

4. 🔹 Price spread between imported crude and retail fuel prices

I asked Grok: “What is the approximate price difference between oil imported by China from other countries and the oil products sold by PetroChina to ordinary consumers?”

Below is Grok’s response:

China’s imported crude oil (mainly discounted oil from the Middle East, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, etc.) typically has a lower landed cost (CIF, including freight) than international benchmark crude prices such as Brent or WTI. Meanwhile, retail prices for refined oil products (gasoline, diesel) sold to ordinary consumers in China are regulated by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), based on a pricing mechanism linked to international crude prices. These prices include refining costs, taxes (consumption tax and VAT, accounting for roughly 30–40% of retail prices), distribution margins, and corporate profits.

Estimated price spread (based on 2025 data, in USD per barrel or equivalent):

• Imported crude landed cost:

China’s major discounted crude imports (e.g., from Iran and Venezuela) have an average landed price of about USD 60–75 per barrel, depending on source and discount. For example, some Middle Eastern or Russian crude trades at USD 10–20 per barrel below Brent. In 2025, average Brent prices were around USD 80 per barrel, while China’s actual average import cost was lower, around USD 70 per barrel, or even less for certain sources.

• Retail prices of refined oil products:

Taking 92-octane gasoline as an example, average retail prices in China in 2025 were about 7–8 yuan per liter, equivalent to roughly USD 1,000–1,100 per ton, or about USD 130–150 per barrel (crude-equivalent). Retail gasoline and diesel prices are typically 1.5–2 times higher than crude costs due to:

‧ Refining and processing costs (about USD 10–20 per barrel)

‧ High taxes (consumption tax of about 1 yuan per liter, plus VAT; total tax burden accounts for roughly 30–46% of retail prices)

‧ Distribution, wholesale, and retail margins (about 300–500 yuan per ton)

‧ Refinery profits (highly volatile; in 2024–2025, refinery profit margins at major state-owned refiners were weak, with some months even recording losses)

• Overall per-barrel equivalent spread:

From imported crude to retail refined products sold to consumers, the overall price spread (including all stages) is roughly USD 50–100 per barrel, or higher, of which:

‧ Taxes and distribution costs make up the largest share (about USD 30–60 per barrel equivalent)

‧ Refinery profits are highly volatile. In 2024–2025, refining margins at Sinopec and PetroChina were relatively low (for example, Sinopec’s refining gross margin was about 6–7%, with losses in some periods). In some cases, margins even turned negative due to price controls (“inverted margins”).

‧ Importantly, this “spread” is not pure profit; it covers refining costs, taxes, subsidies, and other expenses.

• Background factors:

‧ China’s refined oil pricing mechanism (adjusted every “ten working days”) aims to stabilize domestic prices. When international oil prices rise, refineries absorb part of the cost (compressing profits or even incurring losses); when prices fall, some relief is provided.

‧ Overall refining profitability in 2024–2025 was weak due to sluggish demand, accelerated substitution by new energy, and low-margin exports of refined products.

‧ Discounted imports (such as from Iran and Venezuela) help lower costs, but taxes and price controls keep retail price spreads significant.

Sources:

China General Administration of Customs; Reuters/Kpler energy tracking data (import costs)

NDRC refined oil price adjustment announcements; Eastmoney oil price data (retail prices)

Sinopec and PetroChina annual reports; Longzhong Information and JLC refinery margin data (low refining margins in 2024–2025)

EIA, IEA, and S&P Global reports (comparisons of China’s oil pricing mechanisms and costs)

Note: Exact price spreads vary by crude quality, time period, product type (gasoline/diesel), and region. Refineries sometimes operate at a loss, meaning not all price spreads translate into profit. In 2025, refined oil demand stabilized, but substitution by new energy accelerated, and pricing dynamics may continue to fluctuate.

2/2/2026