US-China Trade War: How Long Can the CCP Hold On?
In China, citizens are being hit hard as a brittle economy faces severe strain. But will that translate into rising unrest against the Chinese Communist Party?
It has now been over four months since the second round of the United States-China trade war began. Both countries have released much of their economic data for the first half of 2025, giving a clearer view of the battle.
The overall conclusion is sobering. President Donald Trump's return and the renewed trade war have disrupted Beijing's long-term plan. That plan aimed to transform China into a "super-sized North Korea" through prolonged social and economic suppression — what some have called a policy of "intentional depression."
And this disruption could trigger a brittle economic fracture beyond the Chinese Communist Party's control. Simultaneously, however, it could create opportunities for ordinary Chinese. Those who previously saw little hope of organized resistance might now find ways to push back against the system.
Industrial Red Flags
According to official data, China's GDP grew 5.3% in the first half of 2025, reaching about 62% of the US economy. But few believe Beijing's numbers. The truth lies elsewhere, in data that is harder for the regime to manipulate.
One such metric comes from China's National Bureau of Statistics, showing the percentage of "industrial enterprises above designated size" that are operating at a loss.
In China, this category refers to industrial legal entities with annual main business revenue of 20 million yuan ($2.8 million USD) or more. It covers sectors from manufacturing to energy supply.
