Xi–Zhang Showdown: Who Will Prevail? Part I: How Will the “Red Families” Choose Sides?
(Jennifer’s note: The gravity of Xi Jinping’s move to detain Zhang Youxia has surpassed any previous instance of internal struggle in the CCP’s history and may well become a major historical event triggering a systemic avalanche within the Party. It is therefore crucial to analyze the possible trajectories of this development. The following article was written by former Tiananmen student leader Tang Boliang. I believe it offers distinctive insights, and have therefore translated it in full into English for readers’ reference.)
The power confrontation between Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia has become the most evenly matched and most perilous life-and-death struggle within the Communist Party since the founding of the PRC. Its outcome will not only determine China’s political direction; it may even become the final straw that breaks the CCP’s back. We must therefore pay close attention to every step of the unfolding situation and make timely, accurate judgments as circumstances evolve.
The Wall Street Journal, as overseas CCP-affiliated media, has already branded Zhang Youxia with the charge of “defecting to the enemy and committing treason” (exactly the same label once slapped on me 😂). This signals that both sides have completely torn off the mask and that a zero-sum, you-die-I-live game has officially begun. I said earlier that this time is fundamentally different from Xi’s previous purges of military commanders: in the past, it was “catching chickens,” but this time it is “bayonets crossed.” Both sides will fight with their backs to the wall and deploy every means at their disposal. This mortal duel has only just begun; countless variables still lie ahead, and who will ultimately prevail remains unknown.
The core factors shaping the direction of the Xi–Zhang struggle include, but are not limited to, the following:
* How the red families choose sides
* Who truly controls the guns
* Where public opinion ultimately leans
* How the international situation evolves
* President Trump’s final choice
Today, we begin with the first question: How will the red families choose sides? After all, China remains, in essence, a country controlled by red families; everyone else merely plays supporting roles. By “true red families,” we mean the families of the first-generation revolutionary founders who seized power, with the families of subsequent leaders barely qualifying by comparison.
Below are ten red families that still retain real strength today (excluding the Xi family itself):
1. The Deng Xiaoping Family
* Representative figure: Deng Pufang
* Current status: Family influence has declined sharply, but residual prestige as the foremost red family remains
* Possible direction: Deep dissatisfaction with Xi’s extreme centralization of power? Quiet support for anti-Xi forces?
2. The Chen Yun Family
* Family head: Chen Yuan
* Current status: Still controls trillions in state financial resources; heavyweight conservatives
* Possible direction: If economic collapse harms core interests, could Chen Yuan defect?
3. The Ye Jianying Family
* Family head: Ye Xuanlian
* Current status: Elder brother Ye Xuanning long controlled military intelligence; another brother, Ye Xuanping, once ruled as a “southern overlord”; leading red-second-generation force in the military
* Possible direction: As part of the military system like Zhang Youxia, will sweeping purges prompt a drawn sword?
4. The Jiang Zemin Family
* Family head: Jiang Mianheng
* Current status: Controls the telecom sector, wealth rivaling nations, extensive networks; core remnant of the Shanghai faction
* Possible direction: With massive overseas assets, will the family counterattack or provide explosive disclosures?
5. The Wang Zhen Family
* Family head: Wang Zhi
* Current status: Wang Jun once controlled CITIC and Poly Group; head of a vast arms empire
* Possible direction: Closely tied to Jiang Zemin—will it join the Shanghai faction against Xi?
6. The Yao Yilin Family
* Family head: Wang Qishan
* Current status: Former financial heavyweight and Xi’s anti-corruption ally; now in a state of political limbo
* Possible direction: Wang Qishan’s silence is the greatest variable; after marginalization, will resentment fuel a comeback?
7. The Zeng Qinghong Family
* Family head: Zeng Qinghong himself
* Current status: De facto leader of the Shanghai faction; intelligence boss; severely suppressed
* Possible direction: With strong overseas influence, could he lead a unified anti-Xi front?
8. The Hu Jintao Family
* Family head: Hu Jintao himself
* Current status: Advanced in age, yet as leader of the Youth League faction, retains followers across all levels of government
* Future direction: After years of marginalization, could the numerically large Youth League faction—through Hu’s protégé Hu Chunhua—revive or strike back?
9. The Wen Jiabao Family
* Family head: Wen Jiabao himself
* Current status: Relatively better public reputation; keen to preserve a good name, but as a former office director, lacks boldness and resolve
* Possible direction: With substantial commercial interests, could the family act as a conduit for popular sentiment to challenge Xi?
10. The Li Peng Family
* Family head: Li Xiaolin
* Current status: Power-sector magnates, yet humiliated under Xi
* Possible direction: Li Xiaopeng is relatively compliant (he even once pursued someone close to me 😎), but backed by Zhou Enlai’s lingering legacy—could an opportunity for retaliation arise?
The alignment of these ten families will, to some extent, influence the trajectory of the Xi–Zhang struggle, but it will by no means be decisive. Absent clear signs of a turning point, most families will prioritize self-preservation and continue to play dead. A dark horse could also emerge suddenly—for example, Liu Yuan, son of Liu Shaoqi, or a Xiang Yu-like figure from the descendants of Hu or Zhao with a more favorable public image. Anything is possible.
In short, this is a genuine showdown, not a one-sided purge. Dramatic reversals may occur at any moment. Let us watch how events unfold.
(Preview of the next installment: The red families’ choices are merely the prelude; the true life-and-death card lies with the guns. Amid a military power vacuum, who can truly control the gun barrel? Will tensions across the Taiwan Strait intensify and become the decisive blow that crushes one side?)
(Original Chinese text: https://x.com/tangbaiqiao/status/2015626628026491308?s=20 )
